On Nov. 15, 2017, six Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives introduced articles of impeachment against Pres. Donald Trump. The Associated Press called this “a long-shot effort that stands little chance in the Republican-led House.”
The six representatives were: Steve Cohen, D-Tennessee; Adriano Espaillat, D-New York; Marcia L. Fudge, D-Ohio; Al Green, D-Texas; Luis Gutierrez, D-Illinois; and John A. Yarmuth, D-Kentucky. Rep. Green represents Texas’s 9th Congressional District in the southwestern portion of the Greater Houston Area.
What are the chances that Pres. Donald Trump will be impeached?
Impeachment is a two-stage process. Members of the U.S. House of Representatives must vote to pass articles of impeachment. Then the U.S. Senate must vote to decide whether the president should be impeached.
THE HOUSE VOTE
According to Article 1, Section 2, of the U.S. Constitution, it takes a majority of members of the House of Representatives to pass Articles of Impeachment.
There are 435 U.S. Representatives. It would take the agreement of 218 of them to be able to impeach a president. Currently there are 240 Republicans and 194 Democrats (and 1 vacancy). All the Democrats, 194 total, would need 24 Republicans to vote with them to pass Articles of Impeachment that would go to the U.S. Senate.
It is probably impossible to get 24 Republican Representatives to vote for Articles of Impeachment for a Republican president.
THE SENATE VOTE
But if the House voted for impeachment, it would take a two-thirds vote by the U.S. Senate to impeach the president, according to Article 1, Section 3, of the U.S. Constitution.
The U.S. Senate would be the jury to decide whether the president should be impeached. It would take a two-thirds vote of Senators present to impeach, or 67 total votes assuming all 100 U.S. Senators voted. (Any Senator not casting a vote would have the same effect as a “No” vote.)
In the U. S. Senate, currently there are 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, and 2 Independents. All the Democrats and Independents, 46 total, would need 21 Republicans to vote with them to impeach the president.
It is probably impossible to get 21 Republican Senators to vote for the impeachment of a Republican president.
The obvious conclusion is that Pres. Trump is in no danger of impeachment. According to The Associated Press, “Rep. Cohen said he understands that Republicans hold the majority in the House and are unlikely to allow hearings on the impeachment articles. “
As long as there is a Republican majority in the U.S. Senate and the U.S. House of Representatives, no Republican president need fear impeachment.
Historically, no American president has ever been impeached and removed. Articles of impeachment were filed against Presidents Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump, but no president has ever been impeached and removed in American history.
Kerry Cartier, the Disaster Guy, is interested in constitutional government and American history as well as emergency preparedness and disaster survival. His website for the latter two topics is www.Disasterguy.com.